More Low Rates Predicted in 2016 Mortgage Forecast

Whether or not you’re in the market for a new home or a refinance in 2016, the message is still the same: Rates are still low.

Mortgage rates haven’t fluctuated much in the past few years and have hovered between 3% and 4% for a 30-year fixed-rate mortgage. These steady rates have helped many home buyers, particularly first-time buyers, afford the American dream. I talked to two capital markets experts that point to the stability of this year’s mortgage market as motivation to buy or refi.

According to RealtorMag.com, 2016 is expected to be a seller’s market as home prices nationwide have increased in recent months. This trend also means that if you’re house hunting, be prepared to act fast when you find your perfect house. Realtor.com® predicts that mortgage rates could reach 4.65% by the end of the year, even though they’re currently just under 4%.

Young Buyers

Increasingly, the millennial generation, folks born between the early 1980s and the early 2000s, is becoming a bigger part of the buying market. One big reason is because rent prices nationwide climbed in 2015, while mortgage rates remained stable. This is a continued trend in 2016.

“We want home buyers to realize that they can buy a home today, not some day,” said Bobbi MacPherson, senior product manager at Quicken Loans. “In some housing markets, you can buy a home for the same amount that you’d pay for your first and last month’s rent.”

Quicken Loans Senior Product Manager Katrina Beaubien suggests low down payment programs that help young people and first-time home buyers.

“Rocket Mortgage has been very popular among millennials,” said Beaubien, of the company’s new completely online mortgage process that appeals to young buyers.

She said that younger buyers should take a good look at loan options that allow them to put down less than a 20% down payment on a home.

“I think that some young people forget that buying a home also requires them to purchase a lawnmower, furniture and other items for the home,” she said. “So, low down payment programs really make homeownership possible for many renters.”

Boomerang Buyers

Boomerang buyers are people re-entering the housing market for the first time since a foreclosure or short sale. According to a Transunion study, nearly 700,000 boomerang buyers are expected to re-enter the housing market in 2016.

“It’s a good time to get back out there before rates start going up,” said MacPherson. “The rules have changed in recent years in terms of how long you have to wait to buy a home after a short sale or foreclosure. So, people should call one of our Home Loan Experts to learn more about the changes.”

If you’re a boomerang buyer and thinking of getting a home this year, your credit history, recent payment history and the circumstance of your short sale or foreclosure all factor in to your ability to buy again. Mortgage requirements can call for a waiting period of two to seven years before you’re able to apply for a loan again.

MacPherson said an FHA loan is a possible option for folks re-entering the housing market since as little as 3.5% is required as a down payment. FHA loans may also be the fastest route to homeownership with fewer hurdles to cross.

Refinancers

Those interested in refinancing still have time in 2016 to take advantage of the Home Affordable Refinance Program (HARP). According to Fannie Mae, more than 2 million American households saved money by refinancing to more stable loans with lower interest rates under the federal program.

“This is likely the last year that homeowners can take advantage of HARP,” said Beaubien. “There are probably more than 200,000 folks still out there who could save money through the program. They should do it while they still can.”

Mortgage rates are still phenomenally low, which is beneficial for many homeowners wanting to refi in 2016. Our YOURgage loan, allows homeowners to name their own loan term and shave years off of their mortgage, she said.

“A lot of people who qualify and can take advantage of HARP have heard ‘No’ in the past too many times and never tried refinancing again,” said Beaubien. “And others still think that the program is too good to be true!”

Baby Boomers

For the housing market, 2016 will translate into more graying homeowners. The amount of independence a baby boomer has is a major factor on whether they should change their homeownership status.

Options for boomers remain the same, like any other year: Stay in your home and refinance, downsize into a smaller home or simplify life to become an empty-nest renter. For many aging Americans, homeownership can be expensive and require a significant investment for upgrades and maintenance. Another challenge some boomers face is the status of their health and their level of mobility in order to maintain the upkeep of their home.

“We don’t necessarily have products targeted toward older home buyers,” explained MacPherson. “However, they enjoy the same benefits as anyone else from the continuation of low mortgage rates.”

Key factors for seniors trying to decide whether to buy or rent this year depend on cash-flow needs and home prices and annual rent in their community. Other considerations include annual rent hikes; savings and investment growth; and costs for home maintenance, property taxes and insurance coverage.

“For those baby boomers over the age of 62, a reverse mortgage might be an option as well,” suggested MacPherson. “A reverse mortgage allows a client to tap into the equity in their home and not have any monthly payments.”

One Reverse Mortgage is a Quicken Loans sister company solely dedicated to helping homeowners in their retirement years.

Looking ahead, this year is anyone’s guess what will happen with financials and the mortgage market. But most reports predict unchanged rates.

“Since this is a presidential election year, I think that we will see bigger changes on the housing market in 2017,” predicted MacPherson. “So that’s one more reason for people on the fence to take advantage of the great rates this year.”
Hard Money Lender Atlanta

Mortgage Credit Availability Decreased in January

Mortgage credit availability decreased in January according to the Mortgage Credit Availability Index (MCAI), a report from the Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) which analyzes data from Ellie Mae’s AllRegs® Market Clarity® business information tool.

The MCAI decreased 0.4 percent to 123.8 in January.  A decline in the MCAI indicates that lending standards are tightening, while increases in the index are indicative of loosening credit.  The index was benchmarked to 100 in March 2012. Of the four component indices, the Conforming MCAI saw the greatest tightening (down 1.5 percent) over the month followed by the Government MCAI (down 0.8 percent). The Conventional MCAI was unchanged, while the Jumbo MCAI increased 0.2 percent over the month.

Credit availability decreased over the month, driven by a decline in some FHA and conventional offerings as compared to the previous month. These declines in the MCAI were only partially offset by loosening among adjustable rate mortgage (ARM) and jumbo lending programs,” said Lynn Fisher, MBA’s Vice President of Research and Economics.

Total Mortgage Credit Availability Index August 2015
Source: Mortgage Bankers Association; Powered by Ellie Mae’s AllRegs® Market Clarity®

CONVENTIONAL, GOVERNMENT, CONFORMING, AND JUMBO MCAI COMPONENT INDICES
MBA now reports on five total measures of credit availability as part of the monthly MCAI release: the Total Mortgage Credit Availability Index, the Conventional Mortgage Credit Availability Index, the Government Mortgage Credit Availability Index, the Conforming Mortgage Credit Availability Index, and the Jumbo Mortgage Credit Availability Index, with historical data back to 2011.

Of the four component indices, the Conforming MCAI saw the greatest tightening (down 1.5 percent) over the month followed by the Government MCAI (down 0.8 percent). The Conventional MCAI was unchanged, while the Jumbo MCAI increased 0.2 percent over the month.

Conventional MCAI June 2015 Government MCAI June 2015
Conforming MCAI June 2015 Jumbo MCAI June 2015

Source: Mortgage Bankers Association; Powered by Ellie Mae’s AllRegs® Market Clarity®

The Conventional, Government, Conforming, and Jumbo MCAIs are constructed using the same methodology as the Total MCAI and are designed to show relative credit risk/availability for their respective index. The primary difference between the total MCAI and the Component Indices are the population of loan programs which they examine. The Government MCAI examines FHA/VA/USDA loan programs, while the Conventional MCAI examines non-government loan programs. Similarly, the Jumbo MCAI examines everything flagged as “Jumbo” while the Conforming MCAI examines loan programs that fall under conforming loan limits.The Conforming and Jumbo indices have the same “base levels” as the Total MCAI (March 2012=100), while the Conventional and Government indices have adjusted “base levels” in March 2012. Using data from the MCAI and the Weekly Applications Survey, MBA calibrated the Conventional and Government indices to better represent where each index might fall in March 2012 (the “base period”) relative to the Total=100 benchmark.

EXPANDED HISTORICAL SERIES

The Total MCAI has an expanded historical series which gives perspective on credit availability going back approximately 10-years (expanded historical series does not include Conventional, Government, Conforming, or Jumbo MCAI).  The expanded historical series covers 2004 through 2010, and was created to provide historical context to the current series by showing how credit availability has changed over the last 10 years – this includes the housing crisis and ensuing recession.  Data prior to March 31, 2011, was generated using less frequent and less complete data measured at 6-month intervals and interpolated in the months between for charting purposes.

Total Expanded Historical MCAI June 2015

Hard Money Lender Atlanta

MBA Forecasts Commercial/Multifamily Mortgage Bankers Originations to Hit New Record in 2016

The Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) projects originations of commercial and multifamily mortgages will grow to $511 billion in 2016, an increase of 3 percent from 2015 volumes and slightly more than the previous record of $508 billion originated in 2007.  Mortgage banker originations of multifamily mortgages are forecast at $202 billion in 2016, with total multifamily lending at $262 billion.

“This past year was extremely strong for commercial real estate finance,” said Jamie Woodwell, MBA’s Vice President of Commercial Real Estate Research. “Property incomes are rising, interest rates are low and property values are up.  We expect the momentum to continue into 2016 and to support both the demand for and supply of commercial and multifamily mortgage capital.  We anticipate a growing economy, coupled with only gradual increases in interest rates, will continue to support a strong commercial property market. But, there is a chance that cap rates could increase more rapidly in response to rising interest rates, impacting property sales and mortgage originations.”

Commercial/multifamily mortgage debt outstanding is expected to continue to grow in 2016, ending the year at $2.9 trillion, more than three percent higher than at the end of 2015. MBA released its forecast of the commercial/multifamily real estate finance markets today at its Commercial Real Estate/Multifamily Housing Finance (CREF) Convention in Orlando.

MBA’s commercial/multifamily members can download a copy of MBA’s Commercial/Multifamily Real Estate Finance Forecast at www.mba.org/research.

 

Hard Money Lender Atlanta